with
Nezih Guner and
Emre Enes Yavuz
SUBMITTED
Abstract
We study how the specification of wage risk in quantitative life-cycle models changes the welfare evaluation of taxes and transfers. We estimate four wage processes: a canonical linear process, a flexible nonlinear process with age dependence, non-normality, and state-dependent persistence, and two intermediate processes; comparisons across the four isolate the role of each feature: age dependence, non-normality, and nonlinear persistence. The estimated processes imply different allocations of wage risk across permanent, persistent, and transitory components: the richer processes assign less risk to short-lived transitory shocks and more to long-lived permanent and persistent components. We embed each process in the same incomplete-markets life-cycle economy with endogenous labor supply. Removing federal tax progressivity and means-tested transfers raises mean welfare by 0.72% of lifetime consumption under the nonlinear process but lowers it by 0.47% under the non-normal process. These welfare differences reflect both the total amount of wage risk and its allocation across permanent heterogeneity, persistent shocks, and transitory shocks. Holding this amount and allocation fixed, non-normal shocks create rare but severe low-income states that increase the value of public insurance, while the state-dependent mean reversion that characterizes the nonlinear specification works in the opposite direction: unusually bad persistent states tend to be undone by subsequent favorable shocks, so the wage process partly insures itself, and that lowers the value of public insurance.
Presented at: BSE Summer Forum 2026 (Barcelona), Workshop CEMFI-St. Louis Fed-LAEF on Income Dynamics 2025 (Madrid)
with
Nezih Guner,
Alessandro Ruggieri, and
James Tybout
Abstract
How does globalization affect workers' wealth and welfare? To answer this question, this paper develops a dynamic open economy model with search frictions and endogenous savings. Heterogeneous, risk-averse workers carry wealth to smooth their consumption during unemployment spells, but borrowing constraints leave low-wealth households with uninsurable income risk. These risks are heightened by globalization, which increases income volatility and reduces job security. We fit the model to data from Colombia, and use it to quantify the welfare gains and losses from globalization for different types of households. Counterfactual experiments show that lowering trade barriers results in an average welfare gain of over 2%. However, while workers who begin their working lives with wealth below the median incur welfare losses of around 2%, those who start at the top of the wealth distribution see significant increases.
Presented at: SED 2024 (Barcelona), EWMES 2024 (Palma)
Abstract
House prices shape household consumption, particularly when housing is illiquid and households are highly indebted. This paper examines whether borrower-based macroprudential policies can mitigate credit-fueled housing booms and busts and improve welfare. I build an equilibrium macro-housing model with heterogeneous households, a frictional housing market, and long-term mortgages, and calibrate it to Spain's housing boom and bust of 1998–2014. The model shows that caps on loan-to-value, debt-to-income and payment-to-income ratios substantially dampen the bust in house prices and consumption, raising welfare at the cost of a smaller boom. These gains arise partly because lower leverage limits defaults and forced sales, mitigating the price collapse and its spillovers to other households. The instruments are not interchangeable: a debt-to-income cap delivers the largest welfare gain in the Spanish baseline, while combining instruments performs best across alternative boom scenarios. The results show that the effectiveness of borrower-based policies depends on how their borrowing limits respond to the forces driving the housing cycle.
Presented at: BdE Financial Stability Seminar 2025 (Madrid), MMM BdE-CEMFI-Carlos III 2025 (Madrid) - Poster Session